UK PM Leadership Race: What the UK Population Think So Far

• July 13, 2022
• Georgie Morgan
• no comments

We asked 1200 UK Citizens their opinions (plus some of their 360º life data) on who should be the next UK PM

As soon as the news broke that Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, was resigning (7th July 2022) we were curious about the opinions of UK Citizens, and what the drivers of these opinions we reveal from their 360º life data.

Given that the British public are not able to have a say in the election, it may not be surprising that a number of Citizens didn’t care, so we removed 282 from the initial sample of 1134, leaving 852. 

We asked who should become the next UK Prime Minister, based on those who the media tipped on the 7th July 2022:

• Rishi Sunak
• Liz Truss
• Sajid Javid
• Jeremy Hunt
• Michael Gove
• Nadhim Zahawi
• Penny Mordaunt
• Tom Tugendhat
• Ben Wallace
  

We asked opinion-gauging questions with unique 360º CitizenData such as personality traits, thrill-seeker traits and optimism plus previous voting behaviours, regions of residence and more.

Who’s in the lead to succeed?

Among the UK population, there is no obvious winner, with less than 1 in 4 having a clear choice of a single candidate, with almost half (42 percent) choosing three or more candidates.

When asked Citizens to choose only one candidate. Rishi Sunak came out on top with over a third of all UK Citizens. He had the best conversion rate of 64 percent with the next best conversion rate being Lizz Truss at 41 percent. 

Personality speaks volumes 

We explored demographic, personality traits and behaviours based on Citizens that preferred each candidate. We started out with thrill seeking traits which is a psychometric test we included in our unique CitizenData. It determines where you are on a scale of more cautious to thrill seeker.

On one end of the spectrum, Citizens who chose Penny Mordaunt have on average 30 percent thrill seeking traits compared to Citizens who choose Liz Truss having on average 42 percent thrill seeking traits.

Do the supporters of Sunak and Truss have different personality traits?

The OCEAN Big 5 traits is an academic psychometric that determines where on a scale you fit for: 

• Openness
• Conscientiousness
• Extrovertism
• Agreeableness
• Neuroticism

They can reveal a lot about people. Those who prefer Sunak have higher agreeableness. Those who support Truss have a higher openness to new ideas are more neurotic and assertive, whilst rating lower for overall agreeableness.

Does a more optimistic outlook help to decide?

Liz Truss had a lower optimism trait, showing that those with a more pessimistic outlook are likely to side with her. 

Can the past predict the future?

The voting behaviours of Citizens split via the UK PM candidate chosen. Sunak is more popular than Truss with Labour and Conservative supporters, but she takes the lead along with Javid and Tugendhat among Lib Dem supporters.

Brexit Behaviours

Looking at the Brexit voting behaviours, those supporting Sunak and Truss are more popular with remainers than Brexitiers. 

So, from this first data poll, it’s the initial opinion of UK Citizens is that Sunak and Truss are the favourites, with different Citizen personality traits appearing to align with the different platforms of each candidate. This broadly aligns with press reports on the “game of thrones” selection process underway this week within the Conservative Party. We’ll continue tracking as the process continues.

What are the differences by region? 

So are there regional differences in preferences for our new PM? We’ve mapped the preferred candidates by region on this interactive map. Early indication is that Rishi Sunak is more popular in urban areas such as Manchester, London and Birmingham, while Liz Truss is more popular in more rural areas of the UK.

With a turnaround of under 24 hours, we were able to accessed deeper Citizen data than is available anywhere else.  It’s that revealed unique traits of Citizens in the UK and who they would prefer to be the next Prime Minister. Our unique CitizenData uses psychometrics such as thrill seeking, optimism and OCEAN Big5 traits to get a uniquely consented and yet 360º rounded view of Citizens and their opinions as events unfold.